The #1 Draft Strategy You NEED In 2023 (2023)

Introduction

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Content

Y'all know: we've been live streaming every single day and I'm sure you're tired of hearing by now, oh well, we just took TJ Hawkinson, so this means we're going to Target Kirk Cousins.

Later on or oh, we just took Jalen waddle.

This means we're going to be going after TOA in round nine, but stacking in fantasy.

Football is incredibly important for a multitude of different reasons.

We dove into the exact numbers of why you should be doing it.

This specific Stacks we should be targeting and honestly, the number one stack you would expect is actually a mass of a void, but before we get into it, make sure you go down.

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We are attempting to overcome all the odds.

If you were looking on average in a 12-team fantasy football league, you have an 8.3 percent chance to win your league.

One team wins 11 teams loose personally I, don't care if I get 12 I, don't care if I get 10th I, don't care if I get eighth I, don't care if I get sixth I, don't care if I get.

Fourth they're.

All the same to me, you win zero dollars.

You win zero Glory, there's no point in any of it.

The only thing that matters is being the one team that is able to overcome all the others and stand on top of the league.

So whenever we are looking at at one team you're having to go up against the odds you were having to try to raise your ceiling, not raise your floor, because if it's 11 to 1 and you're out there trying to make sure that you don't lose you're destined to lose, you have to go into a draft with the expectation.

I am going to win and everything has to go right for me to win a perfect example of this is if you were to go through and take Travis Kelsey in round one right.

What has to happen with your first round draft pick for you to generally win in fantasy football.

Now, of course, there will always be exceptions, but we're talking about the general.

We are talking about the large sample and we're not going to try to chase outliers in general.

If you take Travis Kelsey in round one of your fantasy football draft for you to win your league, you have to first see Travis Kelsey stay healthy throughout the course of the entire season.

Second, see you Travis Kelsey finish as the number one tight end in fantasy football, and if both those things were to occur, what else most likely goes with that right because we can say okay? Well, if Travis Kelsey is the number one Titan in fantasy, then you probably have Patrick Mahomes as a top three quarterback right, Patrick Williams is going to be able to stay healthy throughout the course of the entire year.

Patrick balms at the same time, is going to be top three in the NFL in passing yards, which is going to allow Travis Kelsey to have that dominant League.

Winning season that you have so instead of going through and say taking Travis Kelsey round one and then drafting Josh Allen in round three.

You have to get only one BET right if you were to go through and take Patrick Mahomes in round three instead of Josh Allen.

So if you were to take Josh Allen and Travis Kelsey, you have to get two separate bets right, that the Kansas City Chiefs, passing offense is better than expected, or at par of what it's expected to be this next season, and on top of this, you have to get the fact that the Buffalo Bills passing offense is an elite passing offense this next season and instead, if you were to take Patrick Mahomes, you would only have to get one thing right, that one thing being that the Kansas City Chiefs are at top three offense this next year.

You saw the same thing last season right like if you were to go through.

If you were to draft Tyree, kill round two Jalen waddle round four and then last season you picked up two at the very end of your fantasy football draft.

You were making.

One bet in that.

One bet is that the overall passing offense in Miami is better than expected, and if that one thing happens, then all of those guys will be massive League winners for you.

Now, of course, it can always go wrong.

It's not like you're guaranteed that one bet is going to hit, and instead maybe you made the BET last year that oh, my gosh, the Indianapolis Colts are going to be better than people expect and you went through and you drafted Michael Pittman, Jonathan, Taylor and Matt Ryan.

And of course, if you were to have done that you were crushed, you had no shot to win, but that goes back to what we were talking about previously I'm, not trying to play to get sixth place in my fantasy football league I want to either be last or first hell if I can be first in 50 of my leaks and last in the other 50.

That is a way better outcome than being in sixth place in a hundred percent of them.

So that's what we're trying to do we're trying to make Consolidated bets that polarize our outcomes and if we're diving into the numbers here, you're going to see some pretty shocking things.

The first thing is the number one stack you would be going for: doesn't even work now, of course, let me talk about the overall data that's being used.

We are getting this tool from rotavist.

This is going to be a stack explorer that explores the data of Underdog drafts from last season.

Now, why it's very important to be looking at Underdog basketball drafts in particular, is because one those are the drafts we're getting on the live stream right now, we're doing them every single day and, in my mind, the place you should be drafting this next season and, of course, if you're not drafting with us on Underdog fantasy, already go sign up, use.

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You are going to be getting my 2023 fantasy football rankings and, at the same time, you will get a free trial to flockfantasy.com, but nonetheless, another reason why we are going to be using underdog, not just because they're the best, but also at the same time they have the largest data set that we can actually work from every league on Underdog fantasy is a real money, fantasy football basketball draft.

So if you were looking at this, you were looking at over a 100 000 teams drafted last season that we can go through and we can analyze the entire data set and that's what rotaviz has done and the first stack we are going to look at for an example will be your quarterback one and wide receiver one.

So, for example, this is going to be Kirk Cousins paired up with Justin Jefferson right where, if we're going to be looking at the win rate, so your probability of going through and winning your league, if you stacked your quarterback one and wide receiver, one, it was 8.1 percent.

If you did not do this, it was 8.4 percent.

So wait.

Um does stocking, not work um.

What is going on here? It's the exact opposite of what you were wanting to see the top two percent teams across all leagues as well, actually underperformed.

If you had a quarterback one and wide receiver, one stacked together so yeah.

This is not encouraging to see for stacking now.

I, don't exactly know why this did not work this past season, but I have a hypothesis and the main one being is.

If you look at the amount of times that a quarterback won and wide receiver, one was stacked together in comparison to the rest of the field.

The majority of people are going through and doing this.

The majority of people understand yes, if I take Justin Jefferson I want to Target Kirk Cousins later on and what's happening in a lot of these drafts.

This is what I've noticed.

I drafted over 700 teams on Underdog last year and won a hundred and fifty thousand dollars on Underdog is when they take Justin Jefferson.

They think the only way this team's going to be good is if I reach on Kirk Cousins I have to have Kirk has so they take them significantly ahead of ADP, while it may not fit their roster construction.

That is my number one hypothesis on why this did not work this past season, but you were going to see that there were so many other potential spots where you actually could win with stacking and improved your overall win rate like going over to our next scenario right instead of looking at your quarterback one and wide receiver, one paired up what, if you had your quarterback one and wide receiver, two, so, for instance this is you take Kirk, Cousins and then the wide receiver, two in Minnesota you draft Kirk, Cousins and Jordan Addison on the same roster.

You are going to see that you have a ton of success with this in comparison to the first option, you are looking at an advance rate of 8.9 percent, which is well above the average for all other teams and, at the same time, a well well well above the quarterback one and wide receiver, one stacked and my hypothesis in why this makes sense.

Is you get the benefit from stacking and you are not seeing too many other people go through and reach to get that stack, you're, not seeing someone take Jordan, Addison and then going okay, I need to reach on Kirk Cousins in two rounds based on ADP and disregard my roster construction to get this done so if instead you're getting them falling due out of value and you're, not paying the utmost premium price tag for them.

It looks like this is working you're, also seeing the top two percent up at 2.32 percent for quarterback one wide receiver, two pairing so you're, seeing this is what had success last year in comparison now.

Something else that had success as well is, if you were looking at stacking, your quarterback one wide receiver, one and wide receiver, two right.

So this is you, take Kirk Cousins and you have both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

The advance rate here is going to be higher than Baseline still going to be a little bit lower than just having your quarterback one and wide receiver two stacked.

But what I do want to point out specifically if you are getting into Underdog basketball drafts, where you are in massive large field tournaments, where it's a 25 buy-in three million dollar first prize for Basketball, Mania, 15 million dollar prize pool and we're going for the highest ceiling possible, but we actually saw this past season is if you're looking at top two percent finishes, you actually had significantly fewer top two percent finishes with both the wide receiver one wide receiver, two double stacked with the quarterback in comparison to just the quarterback and wide receiver too.

That is very interesting to note.

I think that this is a strong strategy if you were playing in just a regular redraft fantasy football league.

So if you're, just playing with your overall High School buddies right and you're going man, it's a 12 team, League I, don't have to worry about a fantasy football playoff tournament at the very end sure go ahead.

Take Jefferson, Addison cousins, all in the same team, but if you're in a massive large field tournament on Underdog, maybe that's not the best thing to do now.

That's not to say you should not double stack your quarterback, because you can actually find so much success if you do it, but you don't pour all your resources into the position and this kind of makes sense right, because if you were to go through, if you were to take, say, Tyree kill round one this year and Jill and waddle round two this year and then grab that double stack with tool later on.

You are so invested into the Miami Dolphins, with your first and second round selections that are really the only way that your team has truly top top top top top level upside as if Tua leads the NFL in passing yards.

Like that's what has to happen, but if you still double stack your quarterback with maybe cheaper options right instead, you grab say your quarterback a wide receiver, two on that team and then the tied in one for instance.

This may be you go ahead and you grab Justin fields, colcomet and Darnell Mooney, here you're, seeing great success on the top end range of outcomes, you're getting up to 2.6 of the top 2 across the board, which is phenomenal in terms of your overall ceiling, and it makes sense because if that one offense has a massive explosion- and you didn't invest everything into that one offense- you could hit other spots as well.

So you could get the bonus of that offense performing well as well as some other random players that you were able to add in now.

One thing that I want to discuss as well before we get to other stacking options that may work versus don't is handcuffed, running backs, because this is what we've seen a lot in terms of people going through and trying to make sure that they have a high floor in fantasy football right.

But what we've always said is, if you're going out of your way and trying to handcuff your running backs if you're, the guy going through and taking say, Kenneth Walker in round four and then Zach charbonnet in round nine.

Just in case Zach charbonnet is the starter or Kenneth Walker gets injured.

Your ceiling will be significantly lower you're, seeing the top two percent outcome, 1.9 percent of the time, so you're going down from Baseline, but what you are also getting at the same time is your floor.

Raced you're, seeing a bottom two percent outcome only at 1.5 percent of the time, so this is kind of intuitive we've been talking about this for years, but just to prove it to you with numbers here.

If you handcuff your running backs, you take the running back one.

In the running back two on the same team.

You take Kenneth Walker and Zach charbonnet you take in years past Zeke and Tony Pollard your floor will be erased, but your ceiling will be lowered.

That is the exact opposite of what I am trying to do.

The only time I would try to do that is if I'm in a league with my high school buddies and loser has to go, get a tattoo or loser has to go, spend 24 hours in a Waffle House sure if I want to make sure I don't get last handcuff your running backs.

But if you're trying to win some money, if you're trying to get first, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Now, a couple other things that will work is building in Stacks without quarterbacks and you've.

Seen me do this a lot in live streams, I'll go through and say: okay well, I took saquon Barclays, so let me go ahead and just build in and make that one bet that the Giants offense is a little bit better than expected.

Let me grab wandel Robinson a little later right.

So, if you're looking at a running back one and wide receiver, two pairing, even without the quarterback you're gonna, find that this both raises your Advance rate as well as your top end, your top two percent outcomes.

Here you have 8.7 percent for your Advance rate and about 2.2 percent and the two percent best teams- hopefully that made sense- I know it probably didn't, but nonetheless this just goes to show you can stack teammates and find success even without the quarterback, and we can look at this as well.

If you were to go through and pair up, say the wide receiver two in an offense with the wide receiver four now this may work for a multitude of different reasons.

Right if you go through and draft the wide receiver two and a wide receiver, four in the same offense and then all of a sudden, you find that help.

The top two percent range of outcomes is almost up at 2.5 percent.

You are crushing the field with the highest ceiling possible.

There are two reasons why this may work one.

Naturally, if the offense explodes and is way better than you expect, then you could get Spike weeks from both players.

But on top of this, what happens? If you were to go through and grab say sky Moore and Marquez Valdez scantling this season at an extremely cheap price tag.

In Kansas City and then Travis Kelsey were to go down and you not only have a massive hit with Sky Moore getting the boosted Target chair, but you also get the massive hit with Marquez Valdez gambling as well.

Now this last chart is specifically going to be for basketball on Underdog you're, not going through taking a wide receiver, four of any NFL offense in a regular redraft league, but across the board.

Everything else stands here.

I understand we're.

Looking at Underdog data and I would say.

Stacking in basketball is slightly more important than stacking in your traditional redraft format, but almost regardless stacking in your traditional draft format will work.

Given the underlying thought process and the underlying reasoning behind this draft strategy.

Now, like I, said very specific scenarios like taking a wide receiver, two in a wide receiver, four on the same NFL, offense and pairing those guys together, that's specifically going to be for best ball.

But if we're looking at those other options of saying taking the running back, one on a team in the wide receiver, two you take CMC and branded on you and then all of a sudden.

The 49ers are much better off than you'd assume and they both hit or maybe you go through, and you maybe take the quarterback Titan one and wide receiver.

Two, so you go through and you draft say: Lamar Jackson, Mark, Andrews and say flowers they all hit in Baltimore.

This is going to work for best ball.

This is going to work for a redraft.

This is going to work for Dynasty and I'd really encourage you to try to get creative in the way that you're building your teams here and don't just go into it and thinking.

Oh I drafted Justin Jefferson, so I need to draft Kirk, Cousins, but I think that's all I have for you again.

Thank you.

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